As pundits across the web analyze this year’s fielding awards, author Michael Humphreys offers a new and more accurate way to rate players.
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Boston's Adrian Gonzalez won this year's Gold Glove for American League first basemen. Photo: flickr/Keith Allison
As pundits across the web analyze this year’s fielding awards, author Michael Humphreys offers a new and more accurate way to rate players.
by Blaine McEvoy
Evaluating a player’s defense is elusive, mostly because it’s hard to quantify. But Michael Humphreys, author of Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed, created a formula to calculate how many runs each player saves his team. Here are three lessons from his analysis.-
Gold Gloves are a Crock
When coaches vote on the fielding awards, they fixate on flashy plays. Which is why a guy like Derek Jeter has racked up five Gold Gloves (think: leap into stands, relay flip at home). But where does Humphreys rank Jeter? Dead last among post-1992 shortstops with two years of experience. Near the top of that list: Cleveland’s Adam Everett, who has precisely zero Gold Gloves. “Actually,” says Humphreys, “in terms of proven peak skill, nobody’s been better than Everett. Ever.”
Ignore Errors
Pundits tend to look at fielding percentage (rate of error-free plays). The problem: It rewards less aggressive players. “Someone can be good at avoiding errors, but slow at getting to the ball,” says Humphreys. Omar Vizquel has the highest fielding percentage of any shortstop in history but saved only 17 more runs than the average player from 1993 to 2007. “He was more or less ordinary,” says Humphreys. The flip side: Cliff Pennington of the A’s led the league in errors last year but is worth an extra 15 saved runs per full season.-
Positioning is Key
Sabermetrics guru Bill James came up with a measure called Invisible Range in 1977 to gauge a player’s ability to get to balls. Humphreys improved on that in Wizardry, adjusting for such factors as ground-ball versus fly-ball pitchers. His metric exposes players who position themselves poorly, like Anaheim’s Torii Hunter. “He looks terrific on highlight reels, but the two or three homers he saves a season don’t make up for the singles dropping in front of him,” says Humphreys. His preference? Mike Cameron of the Nationals.
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This article originally appeared in the April 2011 issue of Men’s Journal.
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By Blaine McEvoy Wed, Nov 2, 2011